Revenue reflects macroeconomics. Macroeconomic fluctuations cycle stages in the economic boom, fiscal revenue upward trend in the economic recession, fiscal revenue showed a downward trend. In addition to the macroeconomic cycle effects, a country's economic structure, fiscal and taxation system, the quality of economic growth, tax collection, inflation and other financial income is an important factor in the decision. Therefore, the short-term decline in revenue is not a big deal, the key is whether this downward trend has been sustained.
Financial income situation is not optimistic
Since reform and opening, with the improving economy, fiscal revenue has also increased, especially in the 1994 tax reform, the release of "bonus system" so that revenue into the track of rapid growth, fiscal revenue 521.81 billion yuan in 1994, 1999 reached 1.144408 trillion yuan. Doubling approximately every four years thereafter, the fiscal revenue growth, in 2011 more than 10 trillion yuan mark, reaching 10.37 trillion yuan. Revenue growth over the long-term economic growth. As an important means of national income distribution, public finances should be more prominent, "from the people, giving back to people," the original meaning, so that more and better public services to benefit all citizens, so as to quell people questioned the financial growth.
Revenue growth history is nearing completion, revenue growth fell short when the bottom? By the end of 2008 to start the first round of stimulus policies limited time, various economic indicators shows that the British economy since 2011 began to enter a new round of downward cycle. Since entering in 2012, domestic and international macroeconomic downturn, structural tax, real estate and other factors superimposed, making the tax revenue declined in varying degrees, the British continued revenue down month by month trend since 2011, continued to decline .
Recently released economic data in July 2012, exacerbated concerns about the situation in the economy. 2012 January-July, the national civil 11.448 trillion yuan investment in fixed assets, up 25.5 per cent nominal growth, the growth rate down 0.3 percentage points from January to June. July 2012, total retail sales of social consumer goods 1.6315 trillion yuan, up by 13.1% nominal growth (after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 12.2%), 1-7 months of monthly growth rate decline. Month of July 2012, the British import and export value of 328.73 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 2.7%. Among this, exports 176.94 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1%; imports 151.79 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.7%; trade surplus of 25.15 billion U.S. dollars, narrowed 16.8%. July RMB loans increased by 540.1 billion yuan, lower than the previous forecast of 683.8 billion yuan institutions, the highest since October 2011 since ten months low. 2012 January-July, the national real estate development and investment 3.6774 trillion yuan, up by 15.4% nominal growth, the growth rate down 1.2 percentage points from January to June. July UK manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 50.1%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from last month, slightly higher than the critical point. July new orders, new export orders index were 49%, 46.6%, down 0.2,0.9 percentage points, reflecting the future production and export situation is not optimistic. July 2012, the national consumer price index rose 1.8%; January-July average, the overall level of consumer prices rose 3.1 percent over last year.
The central government realized the seriousness of the overall economic situation, "steady growth" become a top priority, given the recent return of CPI growth rate to 2% or less, further easing of monetary policy began, and even some local governments, massive stimulus policies, no doubt these have helped to save the economy downward direction, the British economy is expected to bottom out in the third quarter and a slight rebound. The same time to cause people to be vigilant of the local stimulus policies may exacerbate local government debt, thereby increasing systemic risk of the financial system, for policy-makers to pay more attention to balance the short-term benefits and long-term benefits, benefits and risks in a prudent manner to promote is the right choice.
2012 revenue growth will inevitably slow down. If the government work report in accordance with 7.5% annual economic growth, and in accordance with previous years, the average income elasticity of 1.06 calculated fiscal 2012, revenue growth is likely to reach 12.7%. It would appear that if the future economic growth remained at 7.5% -8%, then the average annual revenue growth rate will be 12.7% -13.5%. Future economic growth is likely in the long term to maintain around 8 percent is already a basic judgment, fiscal revenue growth will inevitably fall down to a moderate speed, may lead to lack of sufficient number of overcharges or overcharges missing. This means that the lack of sufficient motivation to do something, so that revenue will not help the situation after the reform. (See Figure 3)
The financial sector need to make some adjustments
The rapid growth of fiscal revenue in the past, the United Kingdom and the reform of economic and social development of a strong financial security, take a lot of the cost of reform, the public nature of the UK public finances continue to strengthen. With the British continue to promote transformation and upgrading, the future British revenue growth slowdown will become the norm, and we have a certain psychological expectations. Crisis can also bring a favorable turn, specifically, the financial sector also need to make some adjustments in the future.
1. Establish homeostasis cyclical budgetary basic principles. Previous budgets tend to be static annual budget, you can not respond well to some unexpected event or the impact of the economic cycle, resulting in budget execution passive position. Some large-scale construction of public investment projects often take several years or even longer, which would change the existing balanced budget principle, extending the budget cycle, the formation of the principle of homeostasis. Thus, even if a deficit in the year is not terrible, as long as you can make fiscal surplus, currently set "budget balance adjustment fund" also reflects this principle. This principle also applies to future debt budget even intergenerational budget, balance different periods of the current and future public services enjoyed by taxpayers and tax burden, which is a scientific concept of balance.
2 more prominent performance management expenditure. No amount of financial funds are difficult to bear the cost of waste, not to mention the future financial growth era will end. Government departments spend money to establish conservation awareness, a greater emphasis on results-oriented, establish performance concept. Budget performance management can enhance the department's sense of responsibility, sense of efficiency, you can better improve government management, improve the quality of public services. Overall performance management will push the Government to enhance administrative efficiency, improve the government's credibility.
3 more emphasis on structural optimization. Compared with the total amount of monetary policy, fiscal policy, structural adjustment in a more prominent role, serving the future structure of the UK economic restructuring and upgrading, structural adjustment of fiscal policy promising. Revenue growth fell after the government will pay more attention to "skillfully deflected the question" leverage, reduce general administrative expenses, the funds to invest in some key areas, focusing on fostering independent innovation capacity, change the past, focus on the concept of physical capital investment, invest more the field of human capital, such as education, health care, social security, etc., enhance the development potential UK.
4. Hardening budget constraints of local governments. The current financial system does not allow local bonds, but the local governments in the expansion of the administrative assessment under the economies of scale and improve its revenue rational choice, SBC phenomenon still exists. To better constrain the behavior of local governments to reduce unnecessary waste and distorted decision-making and reduce the impact of expanding economic systemic risk, we need to depart from the design of the system, hardening budget constraints of local governments, so that the behavior of local governments to the central goal of unification the expected goals up, to achieve real incentive compatibility. The future, where if you can own bonds, debt can receive double the budget and capital market constraints, coupled with the current public budget has intensified, which will regulate local debt financing behavior, but also conducive to optimizing the structure of local expenditures .
5. Demand management policies to turn. Expansionary fiscal policy is more of a "demand management" policy, but this stimulus is likely to cause some of the following negative consequences, while concerned about the effective supply-side needs. One is stimulated foreign demand, exports and therefore needs to consider the benefits to the UK and financial cost borne. The second is to stimulate demand for short-term policy may overdraft future demand, future demand caused by sluggish growth, will fall into the excessive dependence on the stimulus, the impact of fiscal sustainability. Three is continuing to stimulate demand, is likely to exacerbate the structural imbalances UK. Imbalances in the UK economy is essentially a structural imbalance, lack of demand and supply shortage coexist, although insufficient effective demand through the expansion of public investment or consumption to make up for the lack of private investment or consumption, but will also bring some squeeze the effect, if you can not work on effective supply from both, is likely to lead the economy into inflationary pressure. Fourth, sustainable economic growth in the UK, we must strengthen the endogenous driving force of economic growth, including increased investment in technology and research and development and tax incentives, encourage and guide enterprises and industries into this area; expand small and micro businesses tax cuts, expansion of employment. Five is an urgent need to increase the "three rural" investment, enhance the UK's food self-supply capacity, reduce inflationary pressures.
6 social welfare spending to moderate growth. With the continuous improvement of national life, the public also increases the expectations of social welfare spending, the government response to public opinion, but also continue to increase investment in social welfare, social security system coverage and standards continue to increase in the minimum wage been increasing. But Western countries prone sovereign debt crisis has reminded us that we must guard against "welfare trap." Britain faces growing aging demographic dividend gradually disappear challenges, maintain and strength, financial welfare expenditures match, and implement existing farmer-friendly policy, it will be a long and important work.
收入反映宏观经济。宏观经济波动周期的各个阶段，在经济繁荣，财政收入呈上升趋势，在经济衰退中，财政收入呈下降趋势。除了宏观经济周期的影响，一个国家的经济结构，财税体制，经济增长的质量，税收征管，通货膨胀和其他财政收入是一个重要的决定因素。因此，短期的收入下降是没什么大不了的，关键是，是否这一下降趋势一直持续下去。
财政收入形势不容乐观
自改革开放以来，经济改善，财政收入也增加了，尤其是在1994年税制改革，释放的“奖金制度”，使收入在1994年进入快速增长的轨道，财政收入521.81亿元，1999年达到11444.08亿元。此后大约每四年翻一番，财政收入增长，2011年超过10万亿元大关，达到103700亿元。收入增长长期的经济增长。作为国民收入分配的重要手段，公共财政应更加突出，“取之于民，用之于民”的本义，让更多更好的公共服务惠及所有公民，这样才能平息人们的质疑财政增长。
收入增长收入增长的历史已接近尾声，短期下跌何时见底？ 2008年年底开始的第一轮经济刺激政策，有限的时间，各项经济指标显示，英国经济自2011年开始进入了新一轮下行周期。自进入2012年以来，国内和国际宏观经济低迷，结构性减税，房地产等因素叠加，使税收收入均有不同程度下降，英国收入的持续下降逐月上涨态势，2011年以来持续下降。
最近在2012年7月公布的经济数据，在经济形势恶化的担忧。 2012年1月，7月，国家公务员114480亿元固定资产投资，同比增长25.5％的名义增长，增速回落0.3个百分点，从1月到6月。 2012年7月社会消费品零售总额社会消费品16315亿元，同比名义增长13.1％（扣除价格因素后，实际增长12.2％），1-7个月的月度增速下滑。 2012年7月，英国进口和出口值328.73亿美元，同比增长2.7％。其中，出口176.94亿美元，同比增长1％，进口151.79亿美元，同比增长4.7％，贸易顺差为25.15十亿美元美元，收窄16.8％。 7月人民币贷款增加540.1亿元，低于早先预测的683.8亿元人民币的机构，2011年10月以来的最高点以来10个月新低。 2012年1月，7月，全国房地产开发投资36774亿元，同比名义增长15.4％，增速回落1.2个百分点，从1月到6月。英国7月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1％，比上月小幅回落0.1个百分点，略高于临界点。 7月新订单，新出口订单指数分别为49％，46.6％，同比下降0.2,0.9个百分点，反映未来的生产和出口形势不容乐观。 2012年7月全国居民消费价格指数上涨1.8％，7月平均，居民消费价格总水平比去年同期上涨3.1％。
中央政府实现整体经济形势的严重性，“稳增长”成为当务之急，鉴于近期CPI增速至2％或更低的回报，开始进一步宽松的货币政策，甚至一些地方政府，大规模经济刺激政策，毫无疑问，这些都有助于节省经济下行方向，英国经济有望走出谷底，在第三季度小幅反弹。同时引起人们的警惕局部刺激政策可能会加剧地方政府债务，从而增加了金融体系的系统性风险，为决策者更加注重平衡短期利益和长远利益，以审慎的态度，以促进利益和风险是正确的选择。
2012年收入增长将不可避免地放缓。如果按照每年7.5％的经济增长在政府工作报告中，并根据与前几年的平均收入弹性系数1.06计算的2012财年，收入增长可能达到12.7％。这样看来，如果未来的经济增速保持在7.5％-8％，那么平均年收入增长率将是12.7％-13.5％。未来的经济增长很可能在长期维持在8％左右，已经是一个基本的判断，财政收入增长将不可避免地落入下降到一个适中的速度，可能会导致缺乏足够数量的超收或超收失踪。这意味着，缺乏足够的动机做一些事情，所以收入不会帮助的情况下，改革后的。 （参见图3）
金融业需要做一些调整
在过去，英国的经济和社会发展的一个强有力的金融安全和改革，财政收入的快速增长，采取了很多改革的成本，对英国公共财政的公共性质继续加强。随着英国继续推进转型升级，英国未来的收入增长放缓将成为常态，我们有一定的心理预期。危机也带来转机，特别是，金融部门还需要在未来做出一些调整。
1。建立动态平衡的周期性预算的基本原则。以前的预算往往是静态的年度预算，你不能很好地回应一些意想不到的事件或经济周期的影响，导致在预算执行处于被动地位。一些大型公共投资项目建设往往需要几年甚至更长的时间，这将改变现有的预算平衡原则，预算周期延长，形成动态平衡的原则。因此，即使在今年的赤字并不可怕，只要你可以使财政盈余，目前“预算平衡调节基金”，也体现了这一原则。这一原则也适用于未来的债务预算，甚至两代人的预算，平衡不同时期的纳税人所享有的税收负担，这是一个科学发展观的平衡当前和未来的公共服务。
2更加突出绩效管理开支。再多的财政资金是很难承受成本的浪费，更何况未来的金融增长的时代将结束。政府部门花钱树立节约意识，更加注重以结果为导向，建立政绩观。预算绩效管理，加强部门，责任意识，效率意识，可以更好地提高政府管理，提高公共服务的质量。将推动政府整体绩效管理，以提高行政效率，提高政府的公信力。
3更加注重结构优化。相对于总量的货币政策，财政政策，结构调整放在更加突出的作用，为英国的经济转型和升级，结构调整的财政政策有前途的未来结构。收入增速下滑后，政府将更加注重“四两拨千斤”的杠杆作用，减少一般行政开支，资金投资在一些关键领域，重点培育自主创新能力，改变过去侧重于物理概念资本投资，投入更多的人力资本领域，如教育，医疗，社会保障等，增强发展后劲英国。
4。硬化预算约束地方政府。当前的金融体系并没有让当地的债券，但地方政府在扩张的行政评估下的规模经济，并提高其收入的理性选择，SBC的现象仍然存在。为了更好地约束地方政府的行为，减少不必要的浪费和扭曲的决策和减少扩大经济系统性风险的影响，我们需要从系统的设计出发，硬化预算约束，使地方政府的行为地方政府的核心目标统一了预期的目标，实现真正的激励相容。未来，如果你能拥有债券，债务可以得到双倍的预算和资本市场的约束，再加上目前公开的预算已经加剧，这将规范地方债务融资行为，也有利于优化地方财政支出结构。
5。需求管理政策转向。扩张性财政政策是一个“需求管理”的政策，但这种刺激可能会导致以下一些消极后果，同时关注有效供给端的需求。一个是刺激国外需求，出口，因此需要考虑英国和财务成本负担的好处。二是刺激需求的短期政策可能透支未来的需求，未来需求增长乏力造成的，会陷入过度依赖的刺激，影响财政的可持续性。三是继续刺激需求，是英国的结构性失衡可能加剧。在英国经济失衡本质上是一个结构失衡，缺乏需求和供给短缺并存，虽然通过扩大公共投资或消费来弥补私人投资或消费缺乏有效需求不足，但也会带来一些挤压效果，如果你不能有效供给上，都可能导致经济陷入通胀压力。第四，英国经济的可持续增长，我们必须加强经济增长的内生动力，在技术和研发和税收优惠政策，包括增加投资，鼓励和引导企业进入这个领域和产业，扩大小微企业减税，扩大就业。五是加大对“三农”的投入，加强英国的粮食自给能力，减轻通胀压力的迫切需要。
社会福利支出适度增长。随着国民生活的不断提高，市民的期望也增加社会福利开支，政府顺应民意，还要继续增加投资，在社会福利，社会保障体系的覆盖范围和标准继续提高最低工资一直不断增加。但是，西方国家容易出现的主权债务危机已经提醒我们必须警惕“福利陷阱”。英国面临日益老化的人口红利逐渐消失的挑战，保持和实力，财政福利支出相匹配，并执行现有的惠民政策，这将是一个漫长而重要的工作。
